영국의 유럽 연합 탈퇴 여파-조지 소로스 > 통일게시판

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Soros says Brexit aftermath would be worse than the time he broke Bank of England

By William Watts

Published: June 21, 2016 7:55 a.m. ET

영국의 유럽 연합 탈퇴 여파에 관한 조지 소로스의 견해로

마케워치에 실린 내용을 요점만 번역했읍니다

아래에 번역된 네 문단이 이번 영국의 유럽연합 탈퇴로 벌어질 상황과

아무런 대처도 할 수 없는 영국 정부의 사정을 보여주고 있읍니다

George Soros “broke the Bank of England” in 1992 with his famous bet against the British pound. Now, he’s warning that a U.K. vote this week to leave the European Union would do far more damage to the currency—and the British economy—than the aftermath of “Black Wednesday” ever did.

While some advocates of a British exit, or Brexit, from the European Union argue that a likely deval‎uation by the pound would set up a repeat of the 1992 experience, Soros isn’t convinced.

He offers three reasons:

First, in 1992 (and in 2008, for that matter) the Bank of England was able to cut interest rates sharply following the deval‎uation. That’s not possible this time around because interest rates are already near zero, Soros notes.

If a fall ”in house prices and loss of jobs causes a recession after Brexit, as is likely, there will be very little that monetary policy can do to stimulate the economy and counteract the consequent loss of demand,” he wrote.

1. 영국이 유럽연합을 탈퇴하고 나면 아마도 그렇게 되겠지만 주택 가격이 하락한다 해도

이미 ㅇ% 이자율에 가까운 상황에서 영국 정부가 할 수 있는 것은 아무 것도 없다

Second, the U.K. current-account deficit is much larger than it was in 1992 or 2008. In fact, Soros notes, the U.K. is more dependent 

than at any time in history on foreign capital. Instead of the increased capital inflows that followed the 1992 and 2008 deval‎uations, 

capital flows after Brexit “would almost certainly move the other way.”

2. 지금의 영국의 경상 적자가 1992년이나 2008년에 비해 상대적으로 너무 크고

외국 자본에의 의존도가 사상 최고인데

자본 유출이 예상된다

Third, Soros said, a post-Brexit deval‎uation probably won’t boost manufacturing exports like it did in 1992 “because trading conditions would be too uncertain for British businesses to undertake new investments, hire more workers or otherwise add to export capacity.”

3. 유럽연합 탈퇴 뒤의 파운드화 평가절하가 1992년 경제위기와는 달리 제조업의 수출의 증대를 가져오진 못할 것으로 보이는데

그것은 교역 여건이 불확실해 기업들이 신규 투자를 하거나 수츨증대를 위한 고용확대를 할 수 없을 것이기 때문이다

In the end, the most likely post-Brexit scenario would have more in common with the pound’s humiliating and painful 1967 deval‎uation than it would with the 1992 event, he wrote—a move that cut U.K. living standards. On top of that, speculative forces in the markets are “much bigger and more powerful” than they were in 1967 and will be “eager to exploit any miscalculations” by the U.K. government or voters, he said.

4. 유럽연합 탈퇴 뒤의 상황은 1992년 보다는 1967년의 파운드화 평가 절하 때와 비슷할 것으로 예측되며

자본 시장의 투기 세력이 1967년 때보다는 훨씬 거대하고 강력하기 때문에

영국 정부나 시민들의 오판을 이용해 이익을 취하려고 들것이다

“Brexit would make some people very rich but most voters considerably poorer,” Soros predicted, warning that a “leave” vote could lead to a “Black Friday.”

MarketWatch